Trust, evidence, and the demand for a foundation
EB and PS debate whether rationality needs a divine foundation and how confidence should track evidence. Their full exchange remains before the first response. The analysis distinguishes the origin of reasoning, tests of present performance, and the honesty with which people assess what they believe.
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Mapping Belief to Evidence
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Belief/Evidence Graphic
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“Adequate” Evidence
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Prompt 1: Provide comprehensive formulations of the positions of EB and PS in the following discussion:
The original exchange and each participant’s position
EB: I’d like to talk in terms of trust. Would you agree we all trust in something or someone?
PS: Is this an independent topic confined to the realm of English denotations, or will it return to the Greek-based concept of πίστις such as is found in John 3:18? You’ll have to commit on this so there is no equivocation later on.
EB: I find it easier to speak English, let’s remain there
PS: Ok, then we’ll have to commit to not equivocating later by applying our discussion of English denotations and connotations to a Greek term found in a Biblical passage. Now, if by trust you mean that, for some of the notions for which I map my degree of belief to the degree of the evidence, that degree of evidence and belief is, say, 80%, and I consequently “trust” the notion 80%, then I do “trust” the notion. But that is a low-resolution description of my “trust”. It seems to be an attempt to revert my nuanced epistemic assessment of 80% back to something binary. My belief is not binary. It is intrinsically gradience since the evidence that grounds it is intrinsically gradient. Let me elaborate: To the extent that your degree of belief does not correspond to the degree of the relative evidence (as you personally, honestly perceive it), to that degree you are irrational.
EB: agree, not everything is binary (I read a great book by Bart Kosko “Fuzzy Logic” – not sure if you’ve heard of it). But, I’m curious about even more fundamental notions of trust – like how do you know the world is real? Perhaps you are a brain in a vat or in a simulation?
PS: I don’t know the world is real. My confidence is a matter of inductive density. It is asymptotic—approaching the line of absolute certainty as the inductive evidence accrues, but it never actually reaches complete certainty. This holds for all subjective minds who confront the world with their senses.
EB: Ok, an agnostic. Do you believe it is possible that other people might have more certainty than you?
PS: They can have more or less certainty than me, but to the extent that their degree of belief does not correspond to the relative degree of evidence they perceive, to that extent they are irrational.
EB: What if they were able to perceive better than you?
PS: That does not matter. That question is related to deep rationality: having a fine-tuned toolkit of rationality skills. We are talking here about core rational: simply honestly mapping your degree of belief to the degree of the evidence as you understand the evidence.
EB: I would say that I am rational – even that it is only possible to be rational because God is rational, and I am created in the image of God. How is it that you are rational?
PS: I test my rationality against reality. When my actions emergent of my my belief are successful or unsuccessful, that is applied to my assessment of my degree of rationality. Aging Christians do not ask God whether they are still rational. They do what I do. They normally test their rationality through crossword puzzles or watching their friends’ responses to their behavior. Even younger Christians assess their developing rationality through tests in school or through the degree they successfully navigate the world. It is a mendacious, silly notion you need to ask God how rational you are at different stages of your life. Reality is always there to rub against to inform you whether your rationality is strong or faltering.
EB: I am talking about a foundation for rationality. You believe you are evolved from hydrogen atoms, yes? Why believe evolved hydrogen can be rational?
PS: We don’t need to know about the foundation or origin. If you find a watch or compass in the woods, do you need to know or contact the manufacturer? No. You simply need to test the watch or compass against reality and the degree of its utility from the point you found it. You would be foolish to demand that the manufacturer be found and contacted. The manufacturer cannot tell you whether the found watch or compass is properly functioning, just as a God cannot ensure that his adherents have properly functioning rationality.
EB: Isn’t it possible that your actions are not interacting with reality the way that you believe they are? That your mind is tricking you into thinking you are more effective that you really are? For example, in “The Marching Morons” (Cyril Kornbluth), people have become so unintelligent that they don’t realize they are getting onto planes and trains that proceed to crash in flames.
PS: Yes. I could be wrong. Objective truth does not always align with subjective assessments of the available evidence. The Muslin child who receives a bicycle immediately after praying for one now has more evidence for the truth of Islam, the falsity of Islam notwithstanding. But our epidemic obligation is to honestly map our degree of belief to the degree of the evidence as we perceive it. To the degree that one fails in this, to that extent, they are irrational.
ChatGPT response · editorial edition
EB and PS disagree chiefly about what would justify confidence in human reasoning. EB asks for a foundation that explains why our faculties can be reliable; PS proposes ongoing comparison between confidence, perceived evidence, and practical checks. Their exchange also contains a narrower disagreement about whether the word trust conceals differences in degree of belief.
EB’s Position:
- Interest in Exploring Trust: EB initiates the conversation with an interest in discussing the concept of trust, suggesting it’s a fundamental aspect of human experience.
- Terminological agreement: EB agrees to discuss English usage. PS’s concern is not that Greek is difficult, but that a later move to a biblical term might change the meaning on which the argument depends.
- Exploration of Fundamental Trust: EB is curious about more profound notions of trust, such as the reality of the world, questioning if it could all be an illusion (e.g., brain in a vat, simulation).
- Openness to Non-Binary Beliefs: EB acknowledges the complexity of belief systems, indicating not everything is binary, inspired by Bart Kosko’s “Fuzzy Logic.”
- Different access to evidence: EB asks whether others could have greater certainty or better perception. This challenges how PS distinguishes someone’s actual cognitive ability from the honesty with which that person adjusts belief to the evidence they perceive.
- Foundation for Rationality: EB attributes his rationality to being created in the image of a rational God, suggesting a divine foundation for human rationality.
- Challenge to an evolutionary origin: EB asks why evolved material beings should trust their reasoning and whether apparent success could itself be deceptive. The reference to hydrogen compresses the proposed physical history; it does not yet supply an argument showing why a complex cognitive system could not be reliable.
PS’s Position:
- Concerns About Equivocation: PS is wary of conflating terms and insists on clarity regarding the use of “trust” in the context of the discussion, specifically avoiding the equivocation of English and Greek terms.
- Nuanced View of Trust and Belief: PS describes trust as a gradient, not binary, tied closely to the evidence and personal perception of that evidence. Rationality, for PS, involves mapping one’s degree of belief to the degree of evidence.
- Confidence without absolute certainty: PS allows that the experienced world could be misleading while reporting very high confidence grounded in accumulating evidence, which he calls inductive density. EB calls this agnosticism; PS’s actual position is fallible confidence, not suspension of all judgment about the world. His asymptote image describes increasing confidence without reaching certainty, not a demonstrated numerical law of evidence accumulation.
- Core and deep rationality: PS explicitly distinguishes honest alignment of belief with perceived evidence from possessing a well-developed reasoning toolkit. Better perception can improve the latter and alter the evidence available; it does not by itself determine whether a person honestly calibrates confidence to what they understand.
- Testing cognitive performance: PS appeals to successes, failures, school tests, puzzles, and feedback from others as checks people already use, including religious believers. His forceful language challenges the suggestion that one must consult God to assess current performance. Such checks can reveal specific errors without proving that all perception is globally reliable.
- Origin versus present operation: The found-watch or compass analogy argues that one can assess a device’s present reliability without identifying its maker. Applied to cognition, PS’s claim is that a complete origin story is not a prerequisite for testing particular judgments. This does not mean that information about origins could never help explain a systematic failure.
- Fallibility and perceived support: PS explicitly permits a sincere assessment to be false. His prayer-and-bicycle example illustrates how someone may experience an event as supporting a belief even when that belief is false. He is defending honest adjustment to perceived evidence, not establishing that the event strongly confirms the religion. The argument leaves room to improve how the evidence itself is assessed.
The central distinction is between explaining why reliable cognition exists, checking whether a particular judgment works, and judging whether confidence honestly fits perceived evidence. EB presses the first question and the possibility of global error; PS develops the latter two while conceding fallibility. Keeping those tasks separate makes their genuine disagreement easier to assess.
Prompt 2: Weigh in on this discussion. Who has the position more aligned with rationality and reality?
Which argument supplies the better method?
ChatGPT response · editorial edition
PS offers the better-supported method for assessing and correcting ordinary judgments in this exchange. That verdict concerns the arguments actually supplied: it does not establish a complete theory of rationality or disprove EB’s proposed theological foundation. The reasons and limits follow.
EB’s Position and Rationality:
- Foundation of rationality: EB asserts that a rational God is necessary for human rationality, but does not establish either that necessity or a dependable connection between such a creator and a particular present belief. Even if a creator existed, people could still misperceive and reason badly. The problem is the missing argument, not merely that the proposal belongs to a theological tradition.
- Fundamental doubt: EB correctly notes that an apparent check might itself be misleading. That is a challenge to claims of guaranteed reliability, but PS explicitly disclaims such a guarantee. A bare skeptical possibility does not show that EB’s alternative has better evidential support, and it could also challenge EB’s confidence in interpreting revelation or arguments about God.
PS’s Position and Rationality:
- Evidence and correction: PS supplies a practical rule: adjust confidence to perceived support and use outcomes to expose mistakes. A forecast written down before the result, for example, can be compared with what actually happens; independent observers can challenge selective memory. These checks are stronger when they could genuinely disappoint the person making them.
- Degrees of belief: PS can distinguish tentative trust from near certainty and revise either without treating every change as a total reversal. An 80% confidence report is meaningful only relative to a specified claim and some account of calibration; writing a percentage does not by itself make a judgment rational. Fuzzy membership and probability are also distinct ideas despite both allowing numbers between zero and one.
- Testing without knowing the origin: The compass analogy supports PS’s narrower point that present performance can be assessed before its ultimate origin is known. Success across varied, independent tests supplies stronger support than a single favorable outcome. Useful behavior does not guarantee a perfectly accurate underlying theory, however, so practical success should inform confidence rather than certify all beliefs at once.
Analysis:
- Alignment with rationality: PS gives a revisable procedure and acknowledges error; EB offers a foundational assertion without showing how it improves discrimination between sound and unsound judgments. Those are reasons to favor PS here. His core-rationality criterion remains incomplete unless supplemented by standards for coherence, attention to counterevidence, and responsible evidence gathering—tasks that partly belong to his own category of deep rationality.
- Alignment with reality: The transcript cannot independently establish that either participant’s whole worldview matches reality. It does show why PS’s proposed method is better suited to detecting particular mismatches: failed expectations can force revision. EB’s deception scenario identifies a logical possibility but supplies no comparative evidence that it is occurring or that the theological account escapes it.
The justified verdict is therefore in PS’s favor on the method defended, with a clear limit: fallible testing is not an ultimate proof of reason by something outside reason. EB would need to show both why PS’s checks are inadequate for the task PS actually sets and how the proposed foundation provides a less vulnerable check. PS, in turn, should distinguish honest confidence from well-calibrated confidence and successful action from full theoretical truth.
Prompt 3: List the potential weaknesses in the arguments of each side.
Weaknesses that address the actual claims
ChatGPT response · editorial edition
The strongest criticisms address commitments actually made in the exchange. They should not attribute a binary view of belief to EB after he rejects it, or an exclusive commitment to immediately observable evidence to PS when he has not stated one.
Potential Weaknesses in EB’s Arguments:
- Unestablished necessity: EB needs an argument that human rationality requires God, plus an explanation of how that foundation warrants trust in fallible individuals. Rational nonbelievers do not by themselves refute his proposal: he could hold that God sustains their faculties without their awareness. The relevant weakness is the missing evidential bridge, not their mere existence.
- Unequal application of skepticism: A mind-deception possibility can challenge EB’s beliefs as well as PS’s. If EB demands certainty from PS while accepting a defeasible argument for God, he applies different standards. The possibility still matters as a limit on certainty; it does not, without further evidence, defeat every practical comparison of reliability.
- Origin compressed into an objection: Describing a thinker as evolved hydrogen does not show that the organized system lacks capacities its ingredients lack in isolation. Conversely, an evolutionary origin alone would not prove that every belief-forming process tracks truth. EB must specify the mechanism or inference he thinks unreliable instead of treating the material description as a refutation.
Potential Weaknesses in PS’s Arguments:
- Honesty is not sufficient calibration: A person can sincerely assign high confidence while overlooking accessible counterevidence or reasoning inconsistently. PS partly anticipates this with his distinction between core and deep rationality; his broader account must explain how the two interact. His rule also needs to specify what counts as evidence and how different kinds of support warrant a degree of confidence. Nothing in the transcript requires excluding mathematics or theoretical inference.
- Success and origin answer different questions: Useful predictions can support reliability without proving a complete worldview true. PS’s device analogy is persuasive about testing present function, but it does not answer every question about the origin of cognition. Nor is known manufacture irrelevant to all assessments: a defective design can explain recurring failures. The defensible claim is that an origin story is not always required before a test can be informative.
- Checks remain fallible: PS acknowledges subjective access and possible error, so criticizing him for simply ignoring those limits would misrepresent him. The unresolved issue is how checks become sufficiently independent to reduce shared mistakes. His prayer example also needs a distinction between an event’s perceived support and its actual discriminating power: receiving a bicycle after prayer may fit several competing explanations. Forceful rhetoric about believers does not resolve EB’s separate foundational question.
EB’s main burden is to justify the necessity and practical evidential role of his proposed foundation. PS’s is to explain calibration and error correction without claiming that honesty or usefulness alone guarantees truth. These weaknesses are different in kind; listing them does not imply that the two arguments are equally well supported.
Prompt 4: Based on the discussion thus far, suggest 15 questions for each side that might advance understanding.
Fifteen questions for each participant
ChatGPT response · editorial edition
The following two fifteen-question lists retain the original focus on each participant while targeting the distinctions exposed in the exchange: foundation, testing, perceived evidence, and actual reliability.
Questions for EB:
- How do you define divine rationality, and how can it be observed or experienced by humans?
- Do you claim that God is needed for rationality to exist, that belief in God is needed to reason, or that God is needed to justify trust in reason? What argument supports the claim you intend?
- Can you provide examples of how divine rationality manifests in everyday decision-making and logic?
- Would you say that nonbelievers use God-given faculties without recognizing their source? If so, what would distinguish that explanation from a competing account of the same performance?
- Which step from material organization or evolutionary development to reliable cognition do you regard as impossible or improbable, and why?
- How do you respond to the critique that relying on divine rationality may not be empirically verifiable?
- When an ordinary test exposes an error in your reasoning, how do you integrate that result with your claim about a divine foundation?
- Can divine rationality be tested or falsified? What criteria would you use?
- Why would the possibility of global deception undermine PS’s tests without equally undermining your interpretation of evidence for God?
- Within the agreed English usage, is trust a degree of confidence, a decision to act, an interpersonal commitment, or some combination? Which sense does your argument require?
- What evidence would make you less confident in your proposed foundation, and how would you distinguish that evidence from a misunderstanding on your part?
- In what ways can divine rationality address or explain the variability in human perception and cognition?
- How do you account for irrational beliefs or actions by individuals who also claim a foundation in divine rationality?
- Can divine rationality coexist with the scientific method and, if so, how?
- How do you interpret instances where empirical evidence seems to contradict religious texts or beliefs?
Questions for PS:
- Does your use of evidence include mathematical proof, logical relationships, and theoretical inference? How should confidence be assessed in those cases?
- How do you separate confidence that an experience occurred from confidence in your explanation of what caused it?
- How do you address the potential limitations of human perception in accurately understanding objective reality?
- When two people honestly interpret the same information differently, can both satisfy core rationality while one has used a substantially better method?
- How does your framework deal with new or emerging evidence that contradicts previously held beliefs?
- What would prevent accumulating similar observations from creating exaggerated confidence when they share a hidden source of error?
- How do you propose to reconcile empirical evidence with deeply held philosophical or existential questions that may not be empirically testable?
- What makes a stated confidence of 80% well calibrated rather than merely sincere or numerically precise?
- How does your approach to rationality address complex phenomena where empirical evidence is ambiguous or incomplete?
- How should core rationality and deep rationality interact when someone honestly believes a conclusion reached by an unreliable method?
- How do you assess the quality and reliability of evidence, especially in fields where data may be subject to interpretation?
- In the prayer-and-bicycle example, what alternative explanations and comparisons would determine how much evidential weight the event deserves?
- How do you distinguish evidence about what is likely to happen from reasons about what ought to be done?
- How can independent tests reveal a mistaken account of reality when all observation still passes through fallible minds?
- What mechanisms do you suggest for individuals to update or revise their beliefs in light of new evidence, especially when those beliefs are deeply held?
Progress would come from answering these questions against concrete cases: a failed prediction, a misleading success, or disagreement about the same evidence. That would let both participants test their standards without changing the agreed meaning of trust halfway through the exchange.
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